As if traveling during the holiday season weren’t bad enough, airfare for Thanksgiving and Christmas is reaching a 10-year high as jet fuel prices spike amid the war in Iran.
According to travel site Hopper, a round-trip ticket within the United States for Thanksgiving break is averaging $402 ― up $95 from last year ― while Christmas flights are running $452, an $85 increase.
“Months of elevated jet fuel costs due to the conflict in Iran have contributed to Thanksgiving and Christmas airfares reaching 10-year highs,” the company said in a press release.
The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global oil supplies, driving up prices for jet fuel and diesel. Airlines are passing those costs on to passengers through pricier fares, surcharges and route cuts.
Though the travel advisers we spoke with expected airline costs to rise given the circumstances, even they were surprised by just how much.
“I was expecting it to be high, but not this high,” said luxury travel adviser Sarah Casewit.
What stands out to Fora travel adviser Ronit Margolis about the current airline pricing environment is just how quickly fares can fluctuate ― sometimes changing significantly from one day to the next.
“When clients find a flight that works for their schedule and budget, I encourage them not to wait too long to book,” said Margolis, who’s the founder of Jet Set with Ronit.
Holiday airfare is a lot like Thanksgiving dinner, she joked. “The longer you wait, the fewer good options are left, and nobody wants to be stuck with the leftovers.”
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Holiday airfare is a lot like Thanksgiving dinner, said travel adviser Ronit Margolis. “The longer you wait, the fewer good options are left, and nobody wants to be stuck with the leftovers.”
Margolis said she experienced her own airfare sticker shock when booking a recent trip.
“I actually booked flights yesterday for my husband and me to fly to LA for my dad’s upcoming 80th birthday party, and I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the prices!” she said, noting that coach was almost $900 per person, and first class was around $3,000.
“I’ve been in the travel industry for years, and I honestly can’t remember seeing prices like this,” she said.
When should you book to avoid the highest cost?
Hopper recommended that travelers book their trips before Halloween to secure lower fares, but Margolis said she tells clients to book by mid-October, ideally by Oct. 15, for holiday travel.
“Halloween is the absolute latest target rather than the date to start shopping,” she said.
For travelers with fixed dates, particularly families traveling around school schedules, she recommends booking sooner. The most desirable flights, especially nonstop flights at convenient times, can become more expensive as seats fill up.
“There is no guarantee that airfare will be lowest on a particular day,” she said. “If you find a reasonable fare that fits your schedule, I wouldn’t risk waiting for a small potential price drop.”
Holiday flights almost never get cheaper closer to the departure date, said Kareem George, a travel adviser and CEO of Culture Traveler.
“Typically, as departure dates fill up, prices increase. If you can plan in advance, this can lead to substantial savings on airfare,” George told HuffPost.
Many airlines allow ticketing as early as 331 days before departure, he said, so try to book early and take advantage of that.
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“Typically, as departure dates fill up, prices increase. If you can plan in advance, this can lead to substantial savings on airfare,” said Kareem George, a travel adviser and CEO of Culture Traveler.
What dates are the cheapest for holiday travel?
Whether flying domestically or internationally, travelers can save by being flexible with dates, Casewit said.
For example, flying between Dec. 18 and 22 tends to be more economical than traveling later in the holiday season. Shifting a trip by even a day or two ― either leaving earlier or returning after the busiest travel days ― can make a significant difference.
“For the best deal, if you’re able, fly out on the Monday or Tuesday before the holidays,” she said. “Avoid returning on Sunday, Dec. 27. The ideal time to fly back home is mid-week, before Jan. 2, and the best deals are for Dec. 31.”
Be flexible elsewhere, too: Margolis recommends comparing nearby airports and considering early-morning nonstop flights, which can help reduce the risk of travel disruptions.
Another tip she gives her clients is to book directly with the airline and choose a fare that allows changes without a penalty.
“Depending on the airline’s policies, you may be able to receive a travel credit if the price drops after you’ve booked,” Margolis said.
That said, don’t focus exclusively on finding the cheapest ticket. Stress is already heightened during the holidays, so you’ll want to consider the flight schedule, flexibility and reliability when making your plans.
“Saving $50 isn’t necessarily worth a long connection or the risk of missing an important holiday celebration,” Margolis said.
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